Posted by
Glen Albrethsen on Friday, February 08, 2008 7:06:16 PM
With Mitt Romney bowing out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination, conservatives are grudgingly and not-so-grudgingly beginning to accept what appears to be the inevitable: John McCain will represent the GOP come November.
Mike Huckabee, who has vowed to stay in, and Ron Paul, who hasn't been heard from on any major television channel, MSM or otherwise, since the Reagan Library debate, is still in, but with both so far back of McCain, with less than 1,000 delegates to go, it would be virtually impossible for either to catch up, let alone surpass McCain's lead.
For one thing, the same phenomenon which happens every presidential election season will continue: there are just some people who vote for whoever is perceived to be the front runner. They want to back a winner. These folks don't know much about the issues, they've caught some news somewhere and think, "Oh, well, they're winning, I'll vote for them." Yes, I am talking about adults here, who have to make major decisions about their own lives, and actually are more informed about the latte they drink or the movie they watch than who they're putting into the single most powerful position in the world.
So, McCain, by virtue of being ahead, will continue to be ahead, regardless of what Huckabee says to the contrary.
And by virtue of that, the media can now begin to speculate on a wide range of things, even as they begin to point out McCain's foibles, these same foibles conservatives and talk radio have been pointing out for months.
One of the more intriguing topics is who McCain would consider for Vice President. Conservatives say he would have to give the nod to someone who is conservative, so that enough of the diehards would actually rally behind him. Others think that McCain wouldn't go for such a thing because he would want someone who is more in line with his own way of thinking.
Well, today, when asked about selecting a VP from the South to balance the ticket geographically, McCain said he thought that such a way of picking was probably antiquated. He thought that it would be more important to have someone who could take over as president, someone who would be a strong leader, and someone who would work with him on issues and shared common values.
So, at least part of the question was answered, if in a different context.
The question was specifically put to him about whether or not he would consider Mike Huckabee. McCain answered that the didn't want to comment about such prospects because Huckabee was still in the race and to do so would be unfair to Huckabee's own campaign. While he did rule out the balancing of the ticket, though, he didn't rule out the man himself, so the intrigue continues.
Having said what he said, we will gain a pretty good insight into McCain's intentions based on who is ultimately selected as VP. And since there is thought out there that McCain might not seek reelection, due to his age, the VP would be the best positioned to run in four years.
Ann Coulter today put forth the name of Mitt Romney. She is not the first one to do that. Every time he's brought up, though, there's always someone else to rule him out, which I find interesting, for a couple of reasons.
If McCain really wanted to shore up the conservative vote, and make it count, he would need to do it with someone who was perceived as more conservative than him on the issues where he's not. Well, Huckabee, in my way of thinking, doesn't really fit the bill. While the case could be made that Huckabee would be more socially conservative, McCain has been consistently pro-life, and while he opposes a constitutional amendment to define marriage as between one man and one woman, I don't think he's actually promoted any thing to the contrary, either. He's not taken the lead on these issues, but neither has he promoted their opposite view.
Where he's been found lacking is with immigration, campaign finance reform, tax cuts, judges and now, the environment.
Huckabee, while his stances stiffened after some of the earlier debates, is not perceived to be that much better on immigration, taxes or the environment, because social conservatism is his dominant theme. And social conservatives are just as apt to promote government funding for social programs (think faith based initiatives) then someone looking to keep the fiscal part in balance. And with so many religious folks believing they should be good stewards of the earth, that also opens the door for the environment. And makes people more forgiving about illegal immigration, too.
So, if he's going to make a play for conservatives, to try to get as many of the three factions as possible, he's not going to go after Huckabee. Romney, or a Fred Thompson, or someone less known but a more rounded conservative would seem to be in order.
Romney turned out to be better liked over the last two weeks as the candidate field whittled down, then he ever was at the outset, and while there still are plenty of detractors, there's also plenty now who wish they had gotten on the Romney bandwagon sooner.
So, picking Romney as a VP would be a way to play to the conservatives.
However, the question is, to win the general election, is that what McCain really wants to do?
I say, by and large, he was able to win his pluralities in states which were supposedly conservative by garnering the independent, the moderate and the liberal-leaning voters. He got some conservatives, but the consensus is the vast majority went to Romney and Huckabee. The normal tactics for Republicans in a primary has been to stay right and then tack towards the center for the November contest. Aside from some lip service, McCain hasn't been as far to the right as conservatives wanted him to be, and yet he's still the presumptive nominee with a virtually insurmountable lead.
So, wouldn't it make more sense for him to stick to the center, even if it means poking the conservatives in the eye yet again?
There's already talk radio hosts guaranteeing that the media, who has been giving McCain a pass on a lot of issues, wouldn't do so in the general election. There's already evidence of that. But, if he were to put someone like minded on the ticket, that might keep him in play for the center. The issue would be, just how many people really feel that the war on terror is a necessary war to prosecute in the same manner that is happening now--which means sticking in Iraq and considering military options for Iran and elsewhere.
If moderates and independents voted for him in the primaries because they believe he is the weaker candidate versus Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, then McCain's tactical error would be shunning the conservatives, who, if energized by a more rounded conservative, might actually get him into the White House. If they voted for him because he is more moderate but they also want the war on terror to continue, going hard right with the VP might be the tactical error.
The way things are going this election cycle, the VP pick will probably be an initial surprise, followed by a "Why didn't I think of that?"