Posted by
Glen Albrethsen on Friday, February 08, 2008 4:30:38 PM
So...
My prediction about Mitt Romney's speech at CPAC was waaaaaaayyyyy off.
I guess, that's why he's smarter than I am. While I was looking at how he could possibly make up enough delegates to either win the nomination outright our effectively block John McCain and Mike Huckabee, he was looking at what it would do to the survivor and their chances of winning the White House.
If the situation truly wasn't settled until the first few days of September, that would leave only a couple of months for the eventual Republican nominee to make their case for the November election, against the Democratic nominee.
With what's happening on the Democratic side between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and the tightness of the race, they could be headed to a brokered convention themselves. Regardless, though, there's a big difference between where the Republicans would be and where the Democrats would be in a convention.
Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats are enthused about both their candidates and they have been giving to both campaigns and turning out the vote in record numbers. Not just in some states, but virtually everywhere primaries have been held. The Republicans have been turning out the vote, too, but not nearly at the same clip, nor has any one candidate been raising a lot of cash (ok, there's Ron Paul) because of the extended field.
The longer a protracted primary wore on, the more likely it would have caused more fractious contention then what exists now. With the months that lie ahead, and with McCain the presumptive front runner (Huckabee and Paul staying in notwithstanding), the Republican base can now focus in on one electable candidate, no matter how flawed that candidate may be.
I take exception that all were flawed. There were just a lot of them, and some of them lingered longer, and still are lingering longer, than they truly needed to. However, that's up to them and if that's how they want to spend their time, they're welcome to.
However, McCain can now start turning his attention towards procuring enough delegates to earn the nomination, and once that's accomplished, he can turn towards fund raising for the general election.
Meanwhile, the Democrats can continue to slug it out. The only way their enthusiasm dims is if it does go to a brokered convention and some backroom deal is made which alienates one or the others' supporters. Otherwise, if a compromise is made involving both of them, I think you would have the Democrats believing they have their dream ticket.
The day after Romney's announcement now, I find myself a little nostalgic, a little wistful, with a sense of loss of what might have been. It also leaves me in a quandary regarding what to do--vote for McCain, or not vote.
I do agree with Romney about McCain being better on the War on Terror and in Iraq. I also believe McCain would be better when it comes to judges. At least there's a fighting chance. Both Clinton and Obama are known quantities, and they are not conservative. At best, they are moderate. Neither provide even a snowball's chance in the desert for constructionist judges.
McCain has a record for fighting earmarks, porkbarrel expenditures, and has a reputation for advocating spending cuts. Where he might end up on taxes, immigration, campaign finance reform, etc., is unknown. We're not talking about ideal candidates anymore. We're talking about, as we so often are, the lesser of evils. In this case, there are three, if you're at all a conservative.
I want to add my voice to those who praise Romney for his graceful exit. If he were going to quit, now was the time. Prolonging just to quit short of the convention would have been more devastating and more costly, and would have only ruined the chances of the only candidate, McCain, who might come down on the right side of things.
It also puts Romney in a decent position for a future run, which could be as early as 2012. It also positions him to help out now, however he might do this, with Senate and House races, to help ensure more conservatives gain seats or retain power, rather than moderates and liberals gaining. With the White House lost, the fight for conservatives must now go to the Legislature, where most of the battles for taxes, judges, immigration, etc., will be lost or won, anyway.