Posted by
Glen Albrethsen on Thursday, February 07, 2008 11:57:13 AM
I've read a couple of places now about a memo sent out from the Romney campaign characterizing CPAC and his speech as major.
It did not qualify the content of the speech as major, but rather, seemed to state the obvious. His speech, if he has any hope of still winning the nomination, would have to be major, in order rally the conservative base around him in such a fashion that they would all abandon Mike Huckabee and a large portion of the recently converted would fall away from John McCain.
That isn't going to happen in a campaign that has largely been playing within the margins, without taking a major risk. Romney's had an excellent ground game, pounding television ad campaign--massive mailers and rampant robo-calls, but Huckabee has out hustled him and McCain's timing on endorsements and diversions have been par none.
So, if CPAC is major--and I would say if Super Tuesday wasn't Romney's last great hope, then wowing CPAC is. And we're talking he would have to pull a Steve Jobs at MacWorld kind of performance (not this year, but last year) in order to come close. In short, he would need to channel Barack Obama.
That's not going to happen.
I've seen a couple of Romney's speeches. I enjoyed the Faith in America speech and a couple of others before that. I think he is articulate and eloquent, and there are some times where he reaches a deep chord. However, he is not a cheerleader, a crowd pleaser or Martin Luther King, Jr. incarnate. Or JFK or Ronald Reagan.
So, what can he do at CPAC that will overshadow the anticipation of what McCain will say later, since most minds are on what McCain, who skipped CPAC last year, will tell the conservative base to help mend fences or to reach out to them?
I think at this stage, despite all my desires to the contrary, that Romney's candidacy now is as long shot as it gets. Only Huckabee's and Ron Paul's are more behind.
So, if he is serious about getting to the convention, as he told his faithful in Massachusetts Tuesday night, then he needs to win enough delegates to keep McCain from winning outright, and keep Huckabee from being a spoiler/collaborator.
That in and of itself, is no small task, and a regurgitated stump speech isn't going to do it.
I think Romney needs to lay it all out. I think he needs to take a chance. I think he needs to take a page from a previous candidate's playbook and announce who he would fill positions with.
Now, for this to be most effective, this kind of bombshell would have to already been in the works. The contacts with people to fill high level cabinet positions, even the vice president, as well as names for judges and the like, would have to been all worked out ahead of time. And he would have to couch it in language that would allow some wiggle room, and he would need to have two or three names per position to float.
However, if the campaign had been working towards this for the last month, in anticipation of any campaign scenario, either to solidify his candidacy or to throw the Hail Mary, it would steal so much earned media spotlight from McCain, especially since such a maneuver has not already been leaked, that it would go on for weeks and weeks as analysts and pundits and national media across the country dug through all of potential cabinet members, judges and other nominees.
It would take the naming of the vice president before the convention and raise it about $200 million.
He could say things like, "Candidates have been saying they would nominate judges in the mold of Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito. People like, such and such and so and so and what's their name. Well, I'll take them a step further. I've spoken with these people, and if I'm the nominee, they would be willing to have their names considered for vacancies on the United States Supreme Court."
It would be best to have those people there present, and have them stand up.
Then he could do the same with cabinet members, naming one or two of them as the rose up from their chairs.
He would have to say, "Now, granted, I'm not the nominee yet, but these are the kinds of people I would choose, people I feel are the kinds of conservative minds I want to be surrounded with."
He would also have to say, "I know this might seem a desperate ploy, and at this stage, is some great measure it is. But, this isn't the kind of presentation you just cobble together last minute in less than two days. This has been in the works for some time, and these folks are here with the full knowledge that their names would not only be floated, but that scrutiny of them would take place even now, without me being the nominee, and without them having any real promise."
Boy, wouldn't that be a coup.
This would accomplish a number of things. As state above, Romney steals McCain's thunder. Actually he annihilates it, because the only way McCain could match it is if he did something similar. Second, it gives everyone insight into the kind of team Romney would assemble, since there doesn't seem to be much known about who he might select. McCain's been doing a good job of parading the Kemps and Gramms of the party, to try to appease people. Romney would raise the stakes by actually naming people in their place.
McCain would have to do something similarly, but he would have to do it another time. He would have to create his own opportunity, and regardless, he would be doing it second fiddle to Romney. In the meantime, primaries and caucuses taking place this weekend and next Tuesday would go by, and McCain would be on the defensive, instead of the offensive, where he's been of late.
It would also show to the public what kind of leadership qualities Romney would bring to the table, because that's been called into question with the old leader vs. manager ploy McCain pulled. It would also show that he was willing to take risks, and that running for president was actually important to him, and that conservative values are at the core of who he is.
On top of everything else, however, it would force McCain to do the same to appease conservatives. McCain would have to put his money where his mouth is by naming names, too, and he would have to get some of the same people Romney named or take his own gamble that his own choices would prove less conservative or less competent.
Granted, it would be a bold move on Romney's part. It would put not only this year's candidacy on the line, but any future ones he might entertain. But, boy, would it put McCain on his heels, and boy, would it be about the only way Romney could blow both Huckabee and McCain out of the water at this point.
His CPAC address is literally moments away, and I have no inside information about this whatsoever. This is just about the only thing that I can think of which would qualify as major enough.
Or, he could just play it safe...