Posted by
Glen Albrethsen on Wednesday, January 23, 2008 12:24:45 PM
The whittling down of candidates has begun.
True to his word, Fred Thompson, after a disappointing third place finish in South Carolina, has announced he's leaving the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
The rest of us, particularly politicians, should take note.
With Thompson gone, that leaves John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. Since my last post, Duncan Hunter has indeed dropped out, but Paul still remains.
Huckabee, however, is doing what most of the other candidates have done before him--he appears to be pulling out of Florida so he can regroup and lie in wait in the southern states. With Thompson gone, he is the only southern candidate remaining.
That means that McCain, fresh off a redemptive win in South Carolina, will be going head to head with Romney (who bombarded then eased up in South Carolina to concentrate on Michigan and Nevada) and Giuliani (who has eased up nearly everywhere else to take his stand in Florida). Paul will play, but ardent supporters aside, no one else on either side of the political spectrum is giving him much hope.
Predictions have been a dime a dozen so far, with most of them off. The safe bet is to create scenarios, so here they are.
Giuliani really needs to win Florida. There is a week between Florida's January 29 primary and Super Tuesday on February 5. More than enough time for people in the 20-plus states voting on February 5 to see the results of Florida. The candidates, because of the time frames, will not be able to stump much and will rely more heavily on surrogates, advertising and earned media to get them and their messages out in those states. Where they are well known, their candidacies are expected to do better. Where they are not well known, advertising and earned media will have to suffice.
Giuliani is well known everywhere due to 9/11, but he has had Florida virtually to himself, and his strategy of lying in wait would be proved wrong if he were not able to take a state he has spent so much time and effort in. He will trail significantly whoever the winner is, and would have to carry states he expects to do well in, along with states he doesn't, to try to catch up and then keep up. Yes, places like New York and California would give him the ability to do that, but he still has to carry them. Will voters vote for him, after he hasn't attempted much in six states, and then potentially coming in a distant third in a state where he did? Past Florida, voters in the Super Tuesday primaries will not have the luxury of knowing what has taken place in other primaries voting the same day until it is over.
McCain needs to prove he can win among strictly Republican voters. That really hasn't happened yet. So far, he has been significantly aided by Independents and in some cases, Democrats. If he's able to pull off a win in Florida, then he stands the best chance of all of the candidates of winning the nomination. He has been leading in the national polls of late, too, and making up ground, if not surpassing Giuliani in states the latter is counting on to win.
Romney, despite having more delegates and votes, is considered in second place here. While Romney's not being neglected, McCain is definitely considered the frontrunner which hasn't boded well so far for whoever that spot has been given to. McCain and Romney have both done better with their backs against the wall.
With Thompson out of the race and Huckabee playing elsewhere, Romney does have the greatest chance of picking up not only the economic conservatives, but some of the Evangelical and social conservatives that otherwise might have gone for Huckabee and Thompson. Those voting based on a social conservative stance are not likely to vote for Giuliani. They may decide to vote for McCain, however. If Giuliani and McCain manage to split the majority of defense conservatives, with Romney taking his fair share, then he has the best chance of coming out of Florida with all of the delegates. If that happens, Romney has the money and the resources to make up ground in the larger states where he is trailing, and at least be in the driver seat, if a majority of delegates still can't be won, at the brokered convention.
Personally, I don't think it's in the best interest of the Republicans, or conservatives, for a brokered convention to happen, despite the wealth of civics lessons it would provide. I think the coalition has to coalesce, and coalesce now, around a candidate. I've laid the groundwork in previous posts for why that should be Romney, as well as why I think it shouldn't be McCain.
It would be an amazing thing after a lack of enthusiasm over any one particular candidate if that were to come to pass. I think it must happen for Republicans to win the White House in November.